Davor Josipovic Just another WordPress blog – rather tryout


Calvin’s optimal way home

Filed under: Modeling,Statistics — Tags: , — Davor @ 18:28

This puzzle has been posted here previously but with no correct answer, except for (a). It has also been used by Optiver for the assessment of their new quantitative researchers.

Calvin has to cross several signals when he walks from his home to school. Each of these signals operate independently. They alternate every 80 seconds between green light and red light. At each signal, there is a counter display that tells him how long it will be before the current signal light changes. Calvin has a magic wand which lets him turn a signal from red to green instantaneously. However, this wand comes with limited battery life, so he can use it only for a specified number of times.

a. If the total number of signals is 2 and Calvin can use his magic wand only once, then what is the expected waiting time at the signals when Calvin optimally walks from his home to school?
b. What if the number of signals is 3 and Calvin can use his magic wand only once?
c. Can you write a code that takes as inputs the number of signals and the number of times Calvin can use his magic wand, and outputs the expected waiting time?


My solution to all three questions can be found here: Davor, puzzle solution, 2017. I think it can be interesting to people who have never done statistical modeling and would like to know how it is done.

a. Expected trip time is 8.75 sec. Optimally, wand should be used on red light if the counter is above 20 sec.
b. Expected trip time is 21.32 sec. Optimal wand usage at first light is if the counter is above 31.25 sec, and 20 at the second if there is a charge left.
c. See the solution for the recursive 10-line code that solves the general case. For example, if Calvin has 2 charges and there are 4 lights, then the expected trip time is 11.8 sec with the optimal wand usage.

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